Cavs will win it all

[leftyg]

I contend the Cavs will win it all. Here is my reasoning: they have a dynamite eight man rotation with specialists and the worlds greatest player as well as a side kich who is the most explosaive player in the Eastern Conference. I am talking about LeBron and Kyrie. We have JR who is a catch and shoot genius who holds the ball a couple minutes a game and can get 30 points doing it, and we have a coach that knows how to deploy him. We have a stretch four who can rebound and is a great third option for the offense at 16 plus a game. We have a rim protector in Mozgov who intimidates opponents. We have the berst offensive rebounder in the lezgue in TT. We have Schump who is a great perimeter defender. We have Delly who Hubie Brown called the perfect backup for Kyrie Irving, a Tasmianian Devil in a basketball uniform. And we have a gerat coaching staff and a great GM.

This has a feel to it. This team only has eight guys who can play well in the system, but that is all you need. In games from January 15 until they clinched the two seed, the Cavs were 27-3 in games with one day of rest or more (what you get in the playoffs) with a plus 14 average scoring margin. By comparison the Warriors were about 23-7 with a plus eight scoring margin and the Spurs about the same. I believe this team, like the Buckeyes in football, is a team of destiny. Like the Buckeyes who had their Virginia Tech, the Cavs had the two weeks in December and january that was their Virginia Tech. I think this cities long drought for a championship will be over in June when they beat the Spurs.

[TribefanstuckinMA]

Man, I hope you are still right, lefty. With Love out for at least the next round, and JR missing the first two games against the Bulls/Bucks due to his suspension, it's going to be a bit of work to make it to round three. This is when the rest of the team needs to "sack up" and play (in the words of CBS sports radio in Boston talker Tony Massarotti when discussing the Red Sox starting rotation).

At least the Bucks won tonight. Our guys get an extra two days to rest up from Sunday's brawl.

[JuicedTruth]

This is a tough matchup for the Cavs without Love since the Bulls have two pretty good big men in Noah and Gasol. I'm guessing they'll move Lebron over to the 4 position and put in a combo of James Jones and Shawn Marion at the 3. On defense, I'm guessing Lebron will guard Butler and the Jones will guard Gasol. It's not going to be pretty on defense but Love was weak there anyway. Jones/Marion can't come close to making it up on offense like Love can. But if Lebron plays the 4 he can fill in some of Love's presence since the Cavs can still spread the floor with four players, all competent three point shooters and two incredible drivers in Lebron and Kyrie.

I'm more concerned than I was before Love got injured, but the Bulls aren't going to get me worried unless we fall behind in the series. Noah doesn't seem to be 100% healthy at all and 2015 Derrick Rose is a lot different than 2011 Derrick Rose. Jimmy Butler worries me and Gasol is always a threat, but they haven't looked all that incredible against Milwaukee, so I think they might be coming in a bit overrated.

Should be a fun series and I'm hoping for the best. I'd be disappointed if the Cavs don't at least make the Finals.

[leftyg]

When I put this up, I did not think that Love would be out. But the good news is that the Cavs have had a big rest. Don't be surprised if Matthew Dellavadova starts at point guard, they move Kyrie to the two and as you said Lebron to the four. I see Mozgov in the middle, of course, and James Jones starting at the three. The reason Dellavadova might start is that he is a great passer. Basketball people love him; fans of slam dunks do not. BUT in four games at the end of the season he had 34 assists for an average of 8.5 assists per game. Delly will not shoot much which frees it up for Lebron and Kyrie to penetrate and create off the dribble and frankly play without the ball. Delly creates off the dribble for other people. His only scoring offense will come when LeBron gets him an open look on a three ball; he is a 40% three ball shooter for the season. If it works, Delly will play a lot in the first two games; if it does not Shumpert can take over. Then when JR comes back in the third game he will be fresh and probably chomping at the bit to light things up.

I wondered about rebounding, so I looked at the stats for the game right before All-star week end when Love did not play. And the Cavs outrebounded the Bulls but did lose the game. Part of the reason was that the Bulls had rest and the Cavs were on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs are golden when they get rest, 27-3 from Jan 15 until they clinched before the Boston back to back in games with one or more days of rest.

And remember the Ohio State connection I made. Remember that the Buckeyes lost their quarterback, JT Barrett, to an injury in the Michigan game, and things looked bleak. Then a passer emerged; he could not run much, but boy could he throw. I am talking about Cardale Jones of course. Well the last four letters of Cardell's name mean valley as do the first four letters of Delly's name. coincidence? And Delly is a passer too. I think this would throw the Bulls off just as long as Delly only shoots when he has to or when LeBron gives him his shot. So when one valley ends, the other begins, but I think this one will be surmounted too. I like that. I think LeBon can get 30 plus a game, and when JR gets back, the Bulls will have another problem a fresh set of legs to deal with. Look for Kyrie to get 25 a game and neutralize Derrick Rose.

It will be work, but another little tidbit is that in the Miami years, LeBron was 12-3 against the Bulls even in playoffs that included Derrick Rose. No series went as many as six games.

[JuicedTruth]

I'd be surprised to see Delly start, simply because they have no other point guards's on the roster. And losing JR Smith the first two games makes them even thinner at guard. Essentially, they only have three guards in Irving, Delly, and Shumpert. They'll already need to work in Mike Miller, James Jones, and Shawn Marion between SG and SF. Jones and Marion might even get time at PF and pair them up against Noah who hasn't been effective on offense since he's banged up.

We'll have to see. The first two home games are going to be a struggle without Smith. The Cavs playoff rotation (usually 8 guys, with really 7 getting almost all the time) was looking very, very good. But now you lose only player for the entire playoffs and Smith for the first two games and you're suddenly having to mix in your 8-9-10th best players into the 7/8 man rotation. It's not a great look, but they'll make do somehow.

I'm pretty happy San Antonio lost, even though I like them a lot. I didn't think there was any way Cleveland could beat them if both were to make it into the finals.

[leftyg]

They only have to get past Chicago. I think Atlanta may lose to a very hot Washington team who like us got a huge rest. You are probably right about Delly. I imagine they might dress Joe Harris for the first two games anyway. But they are going to ride their starters hard, especially in the first game to take advantage of the long rest and being short Love. I think Tristan Thompson will even things out rebounding and Mosgov will give the Cavs enough rim protection. "If" Shawn Marion can shine one last time that would be great for this team, and lets hope one of the two old shooters gets hot.

With Love, I was confident this team could beat anybody. Without him, I am glad the Spurs are out because of the coach. I saw the game last night, and it was a tragedy either team had to lose. It was the best first round series I ever saw.
But playoff games are made for eight man rotations. The reason for the Warriors success is that they actually can play 11 guys, but that will not help them in the playoffs. I did an analysis of their games and they had a phenomenal record in the second half of back to back games. They outscored opponents by about 16 points a game and won over 80 percent of the games. The Cavs, were outscored by opponents in the second half of back to backs by half a point a game but they salvaged a .500 record. In games with a day or more rest the Cavs were by far the best team in the Association. That is because of the eight man rotation.

[leftyg]

Well, we are a game away from the Golden Gate Bridge. I am hoping Delly can fill in for Kyrie again on Tuesday. It is chance but one that could pay off huge benefits. It would give Kyrie two weeks off, and that might work. Ths team is not deep, but it does not have to be. Delly has played very well and James Jones is a wonderful revelation; they do not call him champ for nothing. As I wrote in my last post, we have a phenomenal record with one day of rest, much better than Golden States (27-3 13.5, point differential vs 28-7, 8.2 point differential). Now KLove is out and Kyrie is in abeyance, so those numbers may be suspect. But I really feel that something new has emerged, an indomitable will to win and a cast of characters to do it. Remember we beat Golden State by 11, 110-99 and both teams had exactly one day of rest.

[TribefanstuckinMA]

This is fun, huh lefty?

Even though baseball is my first sport's love, I would be thrilled to have the Cavs take this thing all the way to Championship. Our daughter is a big basketball fan, and just hearing the fun she is having with this makes me happy. I could be happier, however, if we were back home and I could enjoy it with her right there.

Bring on the Golden State Rockets - we can take on any comer, right? *

* I know it's the GS Warriors or the Houston Rockets. I'm just being silly.

[JuicedTruth]

It's been a fun ride. I didn't think they had any chance against Golden State, but thinking about how strong their defense was against Chicago (granted, Chicago's offense was terrible) and Atlanta, I think they at least have a chance to contain Curry.

What's been most fun about this run is seeing all the role players start to emerge. With Love out, Tristin had to step things up and he's earned himself a big contract in the off-season. With Kyrie out, Delly had to step things up and has proven himself to be a tenacious defender, but also a decent spot-up shooter. Shumpert's defense has been absolutely huge for the Cavs and will be important against the Warriors. And JR Smith has been JR Smith -- throwing up insane jumpshots that should never go in but somehow do.

I think it's pretty clear how different Lebron is a leader and teammate compared to his first stint in Cleveland. He knows what it takes to be a champ now and pushes his guys towards that. Him saying "next man up" every time a superstar went down with an injury sounded ridiculous, but has worked out. And you could tell in game 3, the one that went to OT, that he spent every ounce of energy in his body to push the Cavs to that win.

The pattern I've seen with the Cavs is that they simply wear you down in these series. They won the Chicago close-out game by 20 and the Atlanta close-out game by 30. Hopefully they can wear down the Splash Brothers as well.

The one big advantage the Cavs have is size. I don't think Golden State will be in much better of a position to work around Mozgov and Thompson than Atlanta was, and those guys pushed Atlanta around like ragdolls. As long as the Cavs can contest shots on the perimeter, I think they have a real good shot.

[TribefanstuckinMA]

I heard a comment about/by LeBron about his four years in Miami. I think he said it, but it was mentioned that when he was in Cleveland the first time, he was just out of high school. Going away to Miami was like going to college for him. Gave him the four years to grow and learn to work with people and also lead them. He said coming bak to the Cavs was like going to work after college, after you got an education.

I think the big difference between LeBron and LeBron 2.1 was the maturity. That leadership is working in our favor now. Would be nice if it took all of Cleveland (and all ex-patl fans of Cleveland sports) to a championship.

[leftyg]

JT and Tribefan, this reminds me of an event way back in my conscious from almost 40 years ago. I was living in Lake Tahoe California with my late brother and my late friend Bruce in a house by the lake. On New Years Eve night my friend got a little tipsy and we were walking to my car; I was sober because I do not like to drink and neither did Bruce which is why one drink got him a little buzz. Bruce was a distance runner and the toughest guy I ever knew. He was also very mild mannered; he would not hurt a fly. Anyway we are walking near the state line between Stateline Nevada and South Lake Tahoe California when my friend laughed and through the ice from his drink over his shoulder and it hit a redneck's truck. It was just ice and when the guy got out Bruce smiled at him and apologized; the guy slugged Bruce. I stood there and I saw the look on Bruce's face, and I knew that the redneck was toast. But my brother and a couple other guys grabbed Bruce from behind and the redneck got back in his truck and sped off. Bruce was furious, and I was furious. Neither of us would speak to my brother for a week, and he, my brother, could not understand what he had done.

Anyway that is how I felt when the playoffs ended. I felt like fate had intervened against the Cavs, like my brother and our well meaning friends, and stopped the Cavs. If KLove and Kyrie had been healthy there is little question in my mind the Cavs would have won. Oh and you can throw in Andy too. The Cavs were simply too outmanned, and it had little to do with the players the Cavs fielded and everything to do with the short bench. Instead I had to listen to Brian Windhorst talk about how the Dubs were simply a better team and how the best team in the league had won when the Cavs at that point were the best team except their second and third leading scorers were out. They were the first team in NBA to ever win a game in the Final with their second and third leading scorers or two guys who scored at least 1,000 points out. Idiots on the NYTimes webpage actually said that the Cavs were better off without Love and Irving. America never got to see the Cavs play, and that is how it made me feel. Unlike the redneck I like Steve Kerr and most of the Golden State players. But it still bristles me. Only oddsmakers in Vegas know that what I am saying is true. The Cavs are 9-4 favorites to win next year and the Dubs are 5-1 to win http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2501 ... ls-rematch You will notice that the odds have gone down slightly because the money is moving towards the Dubs, but that is just fan enthusiasm. It is why it is always wise to vote against Notre Dame in college football. Computer projections and analytics and expert opinions set the line; fans and bettors then move it or set the market.

[TribefanstuckinMA]

To borrow an oft-used phrase at the end of baseball season: Wait Until Next Year. *sigh*

Speaking of which, pitchers and catchers report today! Whether we win or lose again this year, it will still be a fun ride. Go Tribe!